Voting Patterns Changing? Maybe Not

Farrel — Sun, 19 Feb 2006 10:01:00 -0600

The Sunday Times is reporting that the ANC can expect to lose ground in at least six major municipalitics come the local elections on the first of March.

Could this be a herald that identity politics is on the way out? Well… maybe… maybe not. As much as voters in some areas are disappointed with service delivery by the ANC I don’t see all of them switching alleigance and voting for the DA/IFP/ID.

Rather we may see the rise of ‘punishment voting’ where voters see the act of not voting as being a vote against the ANC (which technically it is, if the opposition can keep their numbers constant or rising compared to previous elections). This can lead to some wild swings in voting patterns in the short term (say between local and national elections) as a party will find it’s voters stay away from the polls when they believe the ruling party to be inefficient, rather than a longer term trend of voters deciding to vote for a different party on ideological grounds.

Politics.za: Voting Patterns Changing? Maybe Not

Voting Patterns Changing? Maybe Not