Politics.za

The ID have rejected the DA’s offer of seats on the executive mayoral committee although Mayor Zille is still keeping a seat vacant for them in the hope they have a change of heart.

Someamongus believes that this is due to De Lille’s ego although her own justification that the ID has nothing in common with most of the coalition is valid. Frankly I didn’t expect the parties in the coalition to last a week. It should be noted that the ID will not support the ANC led ‘no confidence’ vote but it is trying to have the executive mayoral committe disbanded in favour of an executive committee representing all parites in council.

I’m not sure if this will work. Firstly with the ID not joining the coalition the power of the smaller parties (ACDP/FF+/AMP) in the commission remains the same. Had the ID joined their power would have been diluted and in an executive committee system their political power would be minimal. I do not see them giving up what power they have.

Secondly the ID might not have all of it’s councillor’s supporting the move. We know that during the mayoral election there was a single vote from the ANC or most probably ID that broke ranks. We also know that prior to the mayoral election four members of the ID (most probably their ward councillors) were willing to vote for Zille had the AMP voted for the ANC mayoral candidate.

So either De Lille is going to shoot herself in the foot (again!) or manage to attain some power in the Cape. Personally I’m betting on the former but then again I thought the DA coalition would be impossible to pull off.

Well that was short. It seems that Deputy Mayor Andrew Arnolds was merely a ‘placeholder’ for Pauline Cupido who was the ACDP’s original candidate for mayor and will step aside and put the position back up for the vote. It seems Cupido is still a member of the national legislature and will have to resign first.

This is illustrative of the fact that no one was really sure who was going to win power in the Cape and so were unwilling to give up the power they already had. Although at least Helen Zille had the cojones to resign from parliament before she was elected mayor and was prepared to be a normal city councillor had she lost.

Now the ACDP are not guaranteed of replacing Andrews with Cupido. There still might be some suprises. The DA is supposedly still trying to get the ID into their coaltion and they might use this as an opportunity to woo them over. Conversely the ID might want to try and seperate themselves from the ANC and vote for whoever the coalition proposes anyway.

The ID might be doing another about turn and join the DA led coalition in the Cape Town municipality.

This will be good news for the DA as it will make votes much more easier to pass in the future. It will also reduce the threat of floor crossing considering the terrible reaction the ID got from it’s backing of the ANC in the mayoral election I’m pretty certain they won’t be too keen to try it again.

However there is still a threat of the coalition not lasting. Consider this:

AMP councillor Wasfie Hassiem said although the party’s first preference had been for the ANC, their overriding goal was to be a part of the winning team.

Doesn’t exactly endear a sense of stability does it?

And on a last note Patricia De Lille has got some serious problems with her party members. From the linked article:

...if its members kept their promise to give their three votes to the ANC candidate, up to four ID members would break ranks and neutralise the AMP by backing DA candidate Helen Zille.

So ID councillors were happy to vote according to ID leadership wishes as long as the ID lost that particular vote? Ouch.

It seems that Patricia De Lille has made a bit of a blunder with her backing of the ANC mayoral candidate Nomainda Mefeketo. Party members in the ID are openly revolting . I think De Lille might have underestimated the fact that she is seen as an opposition to the ANC, not as opposition to the DA, although one reason ID supporters vote ID is out of frustration with the DA.

No doubt had the ANC won the mayoral election I’m sure Simon Grindrod would have been deputy mayor and perhaps the ID supporters might not have been so angry had they actually attained some power. But in this game of political poker the DA called the ID’s bluff, and all they had was a pair of 2’s.

In a previous entry I made it known that I don’t think an alliance comprising the DA/ACDP/FF+/AMP/UP will be able to stay together despite them banding together to shut the ANC and ID out of power in the Cape Town council.

The margins just seem too slim (3 votes in the mayoral vote, 1 vote in the deputy mayoral vote) and there is too much ideological differences between the parties (perhaps you missed the AMP’s ‘Gay = sin’ posters).

I think that despite the DA being in top spot future votes in the council have a good chance of not always going the DA’s way. I think most parties will take issues on a case-by-case basis and the DA may find that it’s allies who helped get Helen Zille elected today will not support it tomorrow.

And of course there’s the issue of the floor crossing window opening next year. That could cut the DA reign short but they could survive depending on a number of factors. Firstly is the question of the alliance remaining stable, or at least friendly to a DA mayor to stop a no confidence vote.

Secondly there is the question of how the ID voters and councillors feel about being shut out. They may feel they have been made to look pretty bad voting with the ANC while getting nowhere and may now throw their support behind a winning horse. I’m sure Patricia De Lille is already trying to weed out potential crosstitutes. It might serve her interest to come out more formally in support of the DA.

So while there is calm and stability now, I really do think it could unravel at any time.

Update: Nuts and bolts of Cape power-sharing deal – Well that was quick. Looks like the DA are trying to lock their alliance members into a formal agreement. Although we all know how well the previous formal agreement between the DA and the NNP ended

Here’s a juicy nugget from the story:

...and a rogue vote from the ANC-ID bloc going to the DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille…

I think there might be few more ‘rogue votes’ unless Patricia De Lille quells those rumblings of internal rebellion that seem to have been coming from the ID.

‘NoooOOOoooOOOoooOOOoooo…‘

But seriously, if this is true the DA must be sweating bullets. They will have been made to look like complete idiots, will have potentially lost the only avenue to demonstrate to voters their value and the local elections will in actual fact have turned out to be a shambles for them.

The ID are going to leave a few of their supporters scratching their heads though.

The Cape Town council will convene tomorrow to elect the new mayor.

Update: ANC set to rule the city with ID, Cape Town mayor still uncertain

According to electoral law Cape Town is supposed to have a municipal council convened one week after elections results are officially announced. Well it’s been a week and still we’re wating (with baited breath I might add) for who will be the mayor.

The ID seem to have thrown their hands in the air and told the ANC and DA to choose a mayor, which would mean Helen Zille would be in the top slot. Perhaps even the ID decided Simon Grindrod was just a tad inexperienced for the job.

Meanwhile here’s a juicy morsel left dangling at the end of the article:

And ID leader Patricia de Lille is facing an internal revolt in the Southern Cape.

Do tell, do tell. Considering the number of municicpalities in the Western Cape that are split between the DA and ANC with the ID in the middle, this might shift the balance in some areas.

Despite Eskom’s best efforts I will not be denied internet access! Yeeaarrrgh!!! Sorry. Had a brief Howard Dean moment there… On to the elections in Cape Town.

According to the latest results, each party received the following percentage of the vote and the number of seats on the council out of 210.

I don’t think the DA will be able to form a coalition with the minority parties , particularly as the ACDP and the AMP have ideologies that are waaaay on the other side of the spectrum than the DA. But… this is the same party that merged with the NNP at one time so who knows.

What is likely, at least what I hope is likely, is an ‘unoffical coalition’. The ID is adamant that there will be no coalition with the DA or the ANC and they want to get rid of the executive mayoral committee that the ANC introduced, which also happens to be what the DA wants as well. I think on most issues the DA and ID will probably be voting off the same ideological page.

Another interesting thing is that if the executive mayoral committee is scrapped the influence of the mayor will be greatly diminished. So it doesn’t seem too bad if Simon Grindrod is made mayor as long as all he does is smile and wave nicely during parades. Hopefully there will be some negotiation allowing Helen Zille to have some actual political clout in the council because she really is an effective and seasoned politician and it would be a terrible shame if she went to waste as nothing more than a councillor.

The parties have seven days to get a working council together.

Who the heck is the ID fielding for Mayor of Cape Town?

No political experience but he is the manager of the Commodore Hotel at the V & A Waterfront? Well if Cape Town is under siege by rampaging German tourists (Doesn’t that happen every summer anyway? I kid, I kid. We love you German tourists.) pissed off because their room doesn’t have a view of the ocean we’ll know who to call…