Politics.za

It’s just not Thabo Mbeki’s week is it? He’s facing an uprising within the ANC at home and it seems he might be facing another embarassment, this time abroad. It has become clear that the ‘quiet diplomacy’ with Zimbabwe that the Mbeki administration has pursued has been something of a failure.

For Mbeki, who has spent an inordinate amount of time trying to resolve disputes outside SA’s borders, this has got to sting. First of all the ‘quiet diplomacy’ approach has been criticised from the beginning by many but government persisted that they were doing the right thing. Secondly it’s a failure right on our doorstop and a failure that has meant 2 million Zimbabwean refugees in the country adding to the pressure on social services especially in urban areas. Thirdly it’s a failure for Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosasana Dlamini-Zuma, who has bascially become invisible in her role and seemingly ceded most of her duties to Mbeki. Considering that she is considered by some as a contender for president (especially with Mbeki’s ‘woman president’ quote) a big foul up like this will reduce her standing.

I’m not sure what Mbeki can do now. Coming out vocally against Robert Mugabe at this point in time is too little too late. All he can hope for at the moment is for Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF to take Mugabe out of power.

With the Zuma rape acquittal the supporters of Zuma have been going on the attack against Mbeki either threatening to leave the tripartite alliance or accusing him of becoming more and more dictator like. Now COSATU are in a way correct. Mbeki is an authoritarian, and he always has been. However COSATU had no complaints when Mbeki was making legislation that they agreed with.

I have also noticed that the Zuma supporters seem to have forgotten the upcoming Zuma corruption trial. To me this was always the primary concern with Zuma. The nature of his relationship with Schabir Shaik, the fact that Shaik paid an abnormal amount of his expenses, is highly disturbing. Similarily the ongoing investigation into Brett Kebble’s empire of financial fraud must be making the ANCYL extremely nervous.

That being said in the meantime Mbeki needs to try and get some focus off Zuma. There’s a rumour that he will use the ANC NEC to do this, exactly how I don’t know. The idea that he will ‘augment his power’ is a bit wierd considering Mbeki wields plenty of power already. In terms of succession he seems to have already backtracked on this ‘woman president’ quote, now claiming that SA is ready for a female president should one be elected. Hopefully Mbeki will put his weight behind someone. It should be noted that before Mbeki came into power Mandela considered Cyril Ramaphosa to be his heir apparent but was convinced to put his endorsement on Mbeki. It might help Mbeki to do that as well.

It is clear that the question of succession is starting to get to President Mbeki, with his now regular pleading for politicians to stop fighting and to do what is best for the country.

The ANC’s “policy think tank” are also considering whether to allow Mbeki to retain his Preidency of the ANC while someone else takes over as president. This idea was put forth a while ago as well. A number of people are against it within the ANC because it might create two centers of power and undermine the position of President of South Africa, which I agree with. The ANC would need to undergo some serious internal transformation for such a scheme to work, and that would have to make the role of ANC purely ceremonial (and the ANC already has a semi-ceremonial head in Chairman Masouia Lekota). So I don’t think it’s that much of a practical excuse.

What Mbeki needs to do, despite his calls for for a female president, is put his weight behind a candidate who would carry on his policies but who is almost impervious to criticism from the left, or the right or anybody else for that matter. Someone who is almost universally acknowledged as one of the best leaders in government today and who has the necessary ‘struggle credentials’ and almost zero taint from the various government scandals brewing these days.

And if you’re a long time reader of this blog you know exactly who I’m talking about.

As a user of ADSL in South Africa I am duty bound to gnash my teeth at our current Minister of Communications Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri for her Departments seeming incompetence and uncaring attitude over the fact that Telkom is ripping SA consumers off as best they can. Which is why everyone was a bit concerned when the minister put pressure on the NCOP to amend the ICASA bill to give her more direct control over the selection of ICASA’s councillors, which is borderline unconstitutional.

Luckily Thabo Mbeki has given Ivy a political snotklap by sending the bill back to parliament. It seems even Thabo might be getting a bit impatient with the fact that Ivy hasn’t done much to lower telecommunications costs or promote competition in the seven years she has been in office. If there’s a cabinet reshuffle between now and the 2009 elections I don’t think Ivy will retain her post.

George Bizos :

Any attempt to limit the functions and jurisdiction of the judiciary is an interference with its independence and therefore a danger to be avoided

When George Bizos starts getting nervous about laws that threaten the independence of the courts then it’s serious stuff. The proposed laws might make the courts more efficient but they seem to do so by eroding the courts independence and it’s ability to act as a counter measure to the Execulature (A totally made up word: Executive and and Legislature combined, as it basically is today).

He’s hoping for some further negotiation before any laws are passed and I hope so as well. It’s really hard to pronounce Execulaturiciary.

As ex-Vice Pres Zuma’s political career seemingly begins it’s slow spiral into oblivion, new VP Phumzilie Mlambo-Ngcuka has decided to step into the spotlight at last. When she was nominated, we mentioned on this website that she was chosen as she seemed to be a non-player in the upcoming ANC succesion battle. And for a while it seemed we were correct, as she refrained from talking to the media or placing any kind of attention on herself.

Until now.

In a multi-part interview with the Sunday Times she drops a few, how shal we say, interesting comments. The first is the almost almost admission that BEE so far has been a balls up and that it will be going under review to sort out it’s “unintended consequences”.

Secondly she also mentions that SA’s labour legislation will also be up for review. Now this is a big deal. If legislation is made more employer friendly, in any way, COSATU and SACP will go batshit crazy but it may all be for nought. With Zuma’s political career careening into what might be a brick wall, SACP and COSATU might not be able to do anything about it. If Mbeki is able to consolidate his supporters power in the next ANC NEC election, SACP and COSATU might have no choice but to go it alone or face total sidelining in the tri-partite alliance.