Politics.za

Moeletsi Mbeki, brother of Thabo Mbeki, that is. He is refreshingly forthright in his opinions despite the fact that he is Thabo’s kid brother. He previously called Zuma a puppet with no policy of his own, he believes BEE in it’s current form is just as bad as colonialism and now he has come out strongly in criticism of Thabo’s strategy on Zimbabwe:

He was highly critical of South Africa’s policy on Zimbabwe, saying the government was contributing to the crisis by insisting that Zimbabwe had a democracy when it clearly had fallen victim to a party dictatorship.

Asked during question time whether armed intervention and/or sanctions by South Africa would work, Mbeki said “no state can rule out the use of force”. It would normally have the monopoly over such force and would use it if it was in the national interest.

It was now in South Africa’s national interest to restore democracy to Zimbabwe and rebuild its economy to accommodate its 80 percent jobless, most of whom had streamed into neighbouring countries.

The latest reports in the media seem to indicate that COSATU is getting nervous backing Jacob Zuma and may look to be throwing their weight behind someone else who is not Thabo Mbeki. We’ve seen this happen before with COSATU when Zuma was embroiled in his rape trial COSATU were scrambling to find a suitable replacement should he be convicted. When his original corruption trial was struck off the court roll it looked like COSATU (or at least COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi) were betting all their chip on Zuma.

However with the NPA making it clear that they fully intend to re-prosecute Zuma on corruption charges and with their being a good chance that the trial will take place during the ANC NEC elections it might be a good idea to look for another candidate to put their weight behind. The name brought up again as a possible COSATU backed candidate is ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe. He was mentioned as a possible Zuma replacement back during the rape trial as well.

Update: Cosatu scorns Sunday Times’s Zuma report

There is no truth in media reports that Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) leaders have “dropped” their support for Jacob Zuma as a candidate for the African National Congress (ANC) presidency, the union federation said on Sunday.

In the past on this blog we’ve called for cabinet ministers in charge of non-performing departments to be dismissed. The Business Day Weekender echoed those sentiments in this weeks editorial where they opine over the fact that any hope that Thabo Mbeki might be leaving a distinguished legacy is being diminished by the day because he won’t fire useless cabinet ministers.

All of these could stall SA’s development and destroy Mbeki’s legacy. It is now easy to forget that when Mbeki took the reins in June 1999, his popular nickname was Mr Delivery. Eight years later, it is impossible to attach this tag to him. This reality is more dangerous to Mbeki than any populist pretender to his throne.

Ministries identified by The Weekender as being detrimental to Mbeki’s legacy

• Communications – the sooner Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri gets the boot the better
• Trade and Industry – mainly due to the ongoing Lotto debacle and our selective tarriffs on Chinese textiles

P.S. Speaking of useless ministries did anyone notice in the Sunday Times Careers section that the recruitment ad for the vacant Director-General of Home Affairs post was recalled?

Recently the Commission for the Remuneration of Public Office Bearers released a report recommending a number of pay increases. President Thabo Mbeki is recommended to receive a whopping 57% pay increase while Constitutional Court Chief Justice Pius Langa is recommended to receive an even larger 65% increase (which would bring his annual salary to R1.7 million).

Instead of protesting that the increases are a bit much considering the lack of pay rise for other more deserving civil servants (policemen, teachers, state doctors etc) national MPs are up in arms because they did not receive a comparable increase. Under the new recommendation MPs will now receive a salary of R643 800 a year. To put that in perspective the salary of a normal US congressman is only R909 372 ($125 000) and they have a history of turning down pay increases. To put that even more into perspective the average black household brings in an income of about R44 000 a year.

But how about a bit of cheese with this whine?

She said the proposed R643 800 package for MPs would also do little to stem the 84 percent turnover rate experienced among members of parliament.

I’m sorry what? You’re earning 10 times the average salary to rubberstamp whatever legislation the executive brings through parliament and you still don’t think you’re earning enough?

Mentor said MPs, already battling to put their children through school, were being forced to subsidise the state while carrying out their duties.

Who the hell struggles to send their kid to school on a R600 000 a year salary? Perhaps you should take them out of Miss Snooty’s Private School for Rich Kids and put them back into Joe Average Public School like most of the population has to as well.

She said that while a car allowance was provided, many MPs whose families live in other provinces find that they need to buy a second car to commute when they were in Cape Town.

While transport is provided for MPs to travel from parliamentary villages to parliament and back home again, it is operated on a strict time schedule and many MPs without their own car find themselves stranded in the village after 5pm and on weekends.

You know they have this thing in other countries, I think it’s called efficient public transport. Perhaps our MPs could put some effort into bringing that here.

Update: MPs reject proposed 5,4% pay rise

Angry MPs across the political spectrum have ditched their ideological differences and called an urgent multiparty meeting to discuss a proposed 5,4 percent salary increase, as opposed to the handsome pay hike for the executive.

Here’s an excerpt of a speech Thabo Mbeki gave to the House of Traditional Leaders:

If a member of the royal family, whose conduct is that of a rascal and who has no respect or value for the people, introduces himself to the people and says … that he is an heir to the highest house in the royal family and to the kingdom of his nation, he must not hope that the nation is going to respect him and accept his rule.

Even I can stand firm on my feet regardless of the difficulties and say, this one cannot lead, whatever is said, we do not want him.

For those of you having difficulty understanding what he’s saying, here’s a translation guide

• royal family – ANC
• rascal – person who sleeps with HIV positive women and is alleged to have solicted bribes
• heir to the highest house – the deserving presidential candidate
• the nation – ANC National Executive delegates

I hope that makes it’s a little bit clearer.

In my opinion, it’s high time for a cabinet shuffle. Despite the renewed statements committing themselves to delivery and better governance it’s still the same old of bunch of ministers that have lead us to what is becoming more and more of an administration so unsure of what to do next they’re too afraid to make a move. Here are the top four ministries that need a shake up.

• Health: It’s becoming apparent that Manto Tshabalala-Msimang is not healthy. After a lengthy stay in hospital for a lung infection she came out and gave a press briefing in which she was clearly not with it mentally and is now back in hospital. We know that Mbeki has protected Manto in the past but it’s clear her wacky views on HIV treatment are making him look an idiot. With her back in hospital it’s an ideal opportunity for her to ‘retire’ due to ‘health reasons’ and get someone in who will bring some international respect back to the Health Department.

• Communications: It’s not often that one person can cost a country billions of Rands but in the case of Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri we have a candidate. In the eight years since she’s been minister South Africa has had the highest communication costs in the entire world. ICASA is possibly the most ineffective regulator on the planet and meanwhile Telkom racks up billions in profit off infrastructure our taxes paid for. And then to add insult to injury just this morning she blamed the ‘private sector’ for not helping out in the local loop unbundling process, forgetting the fact that she had previously made self provisioning illegal.

• Public Enterprises: Thanks to Alec Erwin being asleep at the wheel while SA’s economy grew without a corresponding growth in power generation we can now look forward to five years of power blackouts. Meanwhile SAA needs a few hundred million Rand to bail themselves out of debt, but yet have the ability to launch a low cost airline. And when he’s not losing SA stacks of cash he’s involved in intra-governmental fights with our previous candidate Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri about who gets to control the state broadband infrastructure.

• Home Affairs: Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula has not been in the position as long as the others listed above but one thing is certain, Home Affairs is as much a mess as the day she took over. Mapisa-Nqakula has made a step in the right direction asking for help from some of the other departments to help in sorting the place out but it may be too little too late. Departmental officials are leaving first chance they can, and the organisation needs a Sargent-Major more than a Director-General.

There are a whole bunch of other ministers who need a swift kick in the pants. Feel free to add your own recommendations in the comments.

Mbeki to get R90m security wall

A lot of families in SA would sleep a lot easier with R9000 worth of security on their homes but I guess it’s do as I say, not as a I do.

Update: Well maybe he’s going to need it, as thieves just made off with R4 million(!!) worth of Winnie Mandela’s jewellery. Thabo’s got to keep that prized single malt scotch collection safe!

Update: And Thabo’s not the only one to get some increased protection.

Protection of local and foreign “prominent people” as well as the provision of security at key strategic installations – including cabinet ministers’ homes – rises sharply in the medium term.

According to the Estimates of National Expenditure released on Wednesday with Finance Minister Trevor Manuel’s budget vote, it was anticipated to increase by an annual rate of 26.7% reaching R2.5bn in 2009/10.

In recent US history, the easiest way to become president was first to become governor of a state. George W. Bush was governor of Texas, Clinton of Arkansas, Regan of California and Carter of Georgia.

In SA we have not had a long enough period of democratic rule to extrapolate any kind of trend of who will be president, but one thing that has been a recurring theme is that the Premier of Gauteng has always been mentioned as a presidential contender. When Tokyo Sexwale was premier under the Mandela administration there was a lot of chatter about him being the next president. That he was forced out of politics, supposedly thanks to Mbeki, before any of the chatter could become reality is an indication of the prestige and weight the position holds.

So while reading through this article about current Premier of Gauteng Mbhazima Shilowa’s speech at the opening of the provincial legislature I couldn’t help but wondering if we have another stealth presidential candidate in the making. The speech seemed to be everything that people wanted out of Mbeki’s opening speech at parliament. A new focus on combating crime (R600 million for the 10111 emergency system alone – which seems a bit much to me), focusing on underperforming schools, a planned 60% increase in the number of HIV+ sufferers on anti-retrovirals – what’s not to like?

Shilowa has kept his head down and quiet over the whole Mbeki/Zuma struggle, hasn’t been involved in any political scandals that I’m aware of and to top it all off he’s got lots of cred with the various left wing factions thanks to his past leadership of COSATU. The only black mark I can put against his name is the Gautrain which is still in my opinion the wrong approach to take to reduce congestion and traffic but at least there’s the possibility of something cool coming out of the whole process.

Now of course this is all speculation on my part so take it all with a grain of salt but if he is playing the quiet under the radar game then he’s playing it very well.There’s still a few months to the ANC congress and I really do hope we start getting a better idea of who the potential candidates are in the near future.

Update: Shilowa unveils plan to tackle crime rate

GAUTENG premier Mbhazima Shilowa yesterday gave one of the strongest undertakings from a senior government leader to address the high crime rate as he unveiled a number of crime-fighting initiatives.

The province, which has taken a strong stance on a number of issues, including HIV, was the first to make public its crime-fighting initiatives, following criticism of President Thabo Mbeki’s and government’s alleged failure to deal effectively with crime.

That’s not a joke headline, Thabo Mbeki actually praised Tony Leon’s opposition leadership in Parliament. It’s not the first time he’s done so.

From where I sit, I would never have the courage to argue that he served merely as a Chihuahua, because, indeed, he has the bark of a bull terrier.

Granted this is because Leon is retiring so it’s all backslapping and handshakes all round.

Update: Here’s a quote from Thabo Mbeki directed at Leon to illustrate the usual discourse between them.

I was indeed pleased to note the fact that Honourable Members truly respected his (Leon’s) right to state his views by containing their heckling, making it possible for all of us to hear what he had to say, regardless of its merits.

The electricity supply crisis will not be getting better for at least another five years, with our reserve generating capacity being less than half of what it should be. Eskom plans to spend R97 billion rand over the next five years to bring our reserves up to the benchamrk 15% reserve capacity.

The cause of this complete balls up can be laid squarely at the feet of government, specifically the cabinet, who barred Eskom from building any new power plants from 2001 – 2004 although one must wonder why Eskom didn’t start furiously building power plants after 2004. Cabinet barred Eskom from building new plants in the hope of attracting private investors, but they didn’t do much else besides that. So much for the efficiency of central planning.

The electricity landscape is quite uncertain with some municipalities (such as Cape Town) buying power via Regional Electricity Distributors (who are always being threatened with closure) and others buying direct from Eskom or other third parties. With the enormous capital outlay required to build power stations you can understand why private investors didn’t swoop in.

Unfortunately this is not the only area where government has made a decree and then sat back to watch nothing else happen. After Telkom lost their “official” fixed line monopoly (which still exits for all intents and purposes) it took five years before anyone was prepared to invest in a competitor and they only did so with significant government investment as well (Neotel is 30% state owned).

I wonder which industry will be next to suffer the stellar planning of cabinet.