Politics.za

It seems that Patricia De Lille has made a bit of a blunder with her backing of the ANC mayoral candidate Nomainda Mefeketo. Party members in the ID are openly revolting . I think De Lille might have underestimated the fact that she is seen as an opposition to the ANC, not as opposition to the DA, although one reason ID supporters vote ID is out of frustration with the DA.

No doubt had the ANC won the mayoral election I’m sure Simon Grindrod would have been deputy mayor and perhaps the ID supporters might not have been so angry had they actually attained some power. But in this game of political poker the DA called the ID’s bluff, and all they had was a pair of 2’s.

In a previous entry I made it known that I don’t think an alliance comprising the DA/ACDP/FF+/AMP/UP will be able to stay together despite them banding together to shut the ANC and ID out of power in the Cape Town council.

The margins just seem too slim (3 votes in the mayoral vote, 1 vote in the deputy mayoral vote) and there is too much ideological differences between the parties (perhaps you missed the AMP’s ‘Gay = sin’ posters).

I think that despite the DA being in top spot future votes in the council have a good chance of not always going the DA’s way. I think most parties will take issues on a case-by-case basis and the DA may find that it’s allies who helped get Helen Zille elected today will not support it tomorrow.

And of course there’s the issue of the floor crossing window opening next year. That could cut the DA reign short but they could survive depending on a number of factors. Firstly is the question of the alliance remaining stable, or at least friendly to a DA mayor to stop a no confidence vote.

Secondly there is the question of how the ID voters and councillors feel about being shut out. They may feel they have been made to look pretty bad voting with the ANC while getting nowhere and may now throw their support behind a winning horse. I’m sure Patricia De Lille is already trying to weed out potential crosstitutes. It might serve her interest to come out more formally in support of the DA.

So while there is calm and stability now, I really do think it could unravel at any time.

Update: Nuts and bolts of Cape power-sharing deal – Well that was quick. Looks like the DA are trying to lock their alliance members into a formal agreement. Although we all know how well the previous formal agreement between the DA and the NNP ended

Here’s a juicy nugget from the story:

...and a rogue vote from the ANC-ID bloc going to the DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille…

I think there might be few more ‘rogue votes’ unless Patricia De Lille quells those rumblings of internal rebellion that seem to have been coming from the ID.

Well it was tight right up to the wire but it looks like Helen Zille is the new mayor of Cape Town.

She received 106 votes and the ex-mayor Nomainda Mefeketo received 103. That’s a very slim margin of victory and one that will look even more slim when the next floor crossing window opens.

In the meantime the DA are going to have to do all they possibly can to get some national attention on their achievements in local government in Cape Town. So the Honourable Mayor Zille if you’re listening you need to:

• Sort the power question out. I expect nothing less than you giving Eskom CEO Thulani Gcabashe a major migraine everytime he sees your number on caller ID.

• Get public transport going. Golden Arrow’s bus service is hardly public transport. Metrorail is falling to pieces. Travelling from areas such as Parklands and Durbanville in rush hour traffic is slow torture.

• Get a decent city manager. Wallace Mgoqi has shown he can’t handle it. The aborted jewellery district. Obviously fronted BEE parking companies winning city contracts. N2 gateway housing stalling. The list is embarassingly long.

Do all that and you should be fine…

Update: According to the voting patterns, and DA Mal pretty much confirms it, the ID and ANC are voting together. That might be bad news to De Lille if it causes her voters to question voting ID as an alternate opposition.

Update: Grindrod loses deputy role by one vote – That’s got to sting. The ID have gone from “kingmaker” to needing a “regmaker”. However this minority part alliance is in my opinion very very shaky. While the DA has won the vote for electing officials they could still lose numerous other votes that come before this council.

Update:

Speaking in English, Afrikaans and Xhosa, she said…

Finally! Someone at the DA is listening to my constant harping about making speeches in Xhosa/Zulu/Sotho. Now get Tony Leon into Xhosa Intesive 101 stat!

‘NoooOOOoooOOOoooOOOoooo…‘

But seriously, if this is true the DA must be sweating bullets. They will have been made to look like complete idiots, will have potentially lost the only avenue to demonstrate to voters their value and the local elections will in actual fact have turned out to be a shambles for them.

The ID are going to leave a few of their supporters scratching their heads though.

The Cape Town council will convene tomorrow to elect the new mayor.

Update: ANC set to rule the city with ID, Cape Town mayor still uncertain

According to electoral law Cape Town is supposed to have a municipal council convened one week after elections results are officially announced. Well it’s been a week and still we’re wating (with baited breath I might add) for who will be the mayor.

The ID seem to have thrown their hands in the air and told the ANC and DA to choose a mayor, which would mean Helen Zille would be in the top slot. Perhaps even the ID decided Simon Grindrod was just a tad inexperienced for the job.

Meanwhile here’s a juicy morsel left dangling at the end of the article:

And ID leader Patricia de Lille is facing an internal revolt in the Southern Cape.

Do tell, do tell. Considering the number of municicpalities in the Western Cape that are split between the DA and ANC with the ID in the middle, this might shift the balance in some areas.

The DA has supposedly been offered a deal with the ACDP and other minority parties in the Western Cape. To get the required 106 seat majority the DA will need to get the likes of the ACDP, AMP, FF+, PAC to all work together.

If a stable government is what the DA wants, as DA point man Douglas Gibson keeps on repeating, then trying to get those parties to work together is going to require some serious cat herding skills.

Helen Zille may be a tough cookie but keeping a coalition like that alive will be near impossible.

It seems despite the congratulatory backpats these past elections might not have been the results the DA was hoping for. Compare the following results in the Western Cape between the 2000 and 2006 local elections

Basically everyone stayed steady except for the DA who lost 11% seemingly straight to the ID. Granted in 2000 the DA was merged with the NNP whose councillors then crossed over to the ANC (probably only to find themselves off the ANC electoral list this year… suckers). But still, that’s a 10% knock in your strongest province. This coupled with the things highlighted in the comments section of this thread over at Someamongus’ South Africa blog highlight the fact that the DA is treading water at the moment.

They desperately need a prominent municipality (like Cape Town) to prove to voters that they are capable of governing effectively and can do a better job than the ANC. Otherwise ANC voters will refuse to look at them preferring to make their grievances known via non-election means such as the township demonstrations over delivery that have come to the fore in the past few months.

So for the sake of having a decent opposition let’s hope that Tony’s got a game plan.

Update: Laurence at Commentary discusses the DA malaise in more detail.

Update: DA insider DA Mal posts a response.

Despite Eskom’s best efforts I will not be denied internet access! Yeeaarrrgh!!! Sorry. Had a brief Howard Dean moment there… On to the elections in Cape Town.

According to the latest results, each party received the following percentage of the vote and the number of seats on the council out of 210.

I don’t think the DA will be able to form a coalition with the minority parties , particularly as the ACDP and the AMP have ideologies that are waaaay on the other side of the spectrum than the DA. But… this is the same party that merged with the NNP at one time so who knows.

What is likely, at least what I hope is likely, is an ‘unoffical coalition’. The ID is adamant that there will be no coalition with the DA or the ANC and they want to get rid of the executive mayoral committee that the ANC introduced, which also happens to be what the DA wants as well. I think on most issues the DA and ID will probably be voting off the same ideological page.

Another interesting thing is that if the executive mayoral committee is scrapped the influence of the mayor will be greatly diminished. So it doesn’t seem too bad if Simon Grindrod is made mayor as long as all he does is smile and wave nicely during parades. Hopefully there will be some negotiation allowing Helen Zille to have some actual political clout in the council because she really is an effective and seasoned politician and it would be a terrible shame if she went to waste as nothing more than a councillor.

The parties have seven days to get a working council together.

In what may be a first for the SA blogosphere, Someamongus has managed to score an interview with the DA’s Chairman Joe Seremane discussing the upcoming local elections. Nice job!

Folks, if you think stealing election posters is going to somehow shift elections into your favour, then you have shown yourself to be too stupid to be in politics and should recuse yourself from the entire process lest you actually get into a position of power and mess it up for everyone else.