Politics.za

I agree, the DA can breath easier. As for another vote which would require a no confidence vote passing or if in the event the ANC succeeeds in getting an adminstrator appointed and a fresh vote is held (I think the latter prospect in unlikely as Cape Town is a well run city administration), a full council meeting would require at least 106 out of 210 councillors to be present in order to hold the vote as this would be a quorum. If the ID decides to abstain as caucus leader Simon Ginrod said yesterday then the threshhold for victory by the winning party in the vote for mayor will be 94 votes out of 188 that are cast in favor of the DA and ANC candidates. On March 15th an outright majority as you suggest of 106 votes (a simple majority of 50%+ 1 vote) was won by Helen Zille for mayor but note that the positions of deputy mayor and speaker were carried with 105 votes and the threshhold for victory fell to 105 because the PAC abstained.

Now given this scenario that 94 votes would be required to secure the mayorship in a re-vote, the DA’s position in the council looks reassuring as it would as you suggest surely get the vote of the ACDP at the very least and would win by 97 votes while the unlikely event that the ANC can get the remaining small parties to vote for them would see it getting 90 votes as you suggest.

However as the way thing stand with Wallace Mgoqi being accused of illegally submitting a fraudulent letter to the IEC on the “vacancies” for the AMP, it is unlikely any of the 15-seat ACDP-led block of six Forum Parties as they are called will back out of the coalition with Zille. Both the AMP and UDM, whose support is crucial to the coalition, have emphatically said they will continue to back Zille. So it is more likely in the event of such vote the ANC could with the PAC get 81 votes against the 105 that Zille’s coalition currently have.

This is good news for the DA as the ANC stands little chance of getting a no confidence vote.

I posted this earlier but here is it:

I looked at the election results from the IEC on Ward 82 in Mitchell’s Plain and the ID only won the seat with 39% of the vote against 37.5% for the DA, a margin of only 150 votes out of 6,000 cast. The ANC on the other hand received only 14.5% of the vote. An adjacent Ward 79, also in Mitchell’s Plain showed the ID winning by only 66 votes: 40% for ID, 39% for DA and just 16.5% for the ANC . In the third ward in Ottery a similar scenario was played out with the ANC getting only 12% of the vote.

My own view about the upcoming by-election in June is that the DA will probably win it by a confortable landslide even it the ANC manages to pick up some votes from the ID as well as smaller parties such as the AMP and UDM . The DA on the other hand will pick up the bulk of the ID’s votes that would diminish the ID’s standing in the by-election.

My guess is that the DA will win comfortably with 55%, the ANC with about 25%, the ID with about 10% and the remaining 10% going to other parties. Thus a landslide for the DA.

Kevin Hughes

P.S. If Sheval Arendse, who resigned from the Tafelsig ward decides to run as an independent instead of joining the DA, the outcome would be that either he wins or the DA wins, but that the ID and ANC will not stand a chance. The reason why he would stand as an independent is that he would stand a better chance of joining the mayoral committee seat originally left open for the ID than if he joins the DA as the DA has left the mayco seat open at this time. Arendse would thus as an independent undoubtedly be in a stronger bargaining position to get the post in Zille’s government with the prospect that Zille’s multiparty coalition expands to 106 secured seats from 105.

Good argument, Kevin, I follow you 100%.

So far as La Grindrod is concerned, this must be the first attempt to bail out the ID’s leaky boat before the by-election. Expect more. Because I can’t see otherwise why they would start admitting that they’ve mishandled their relationship with their voters by ‘joining’ the ANC.

Also, I suspect that they are worried about other ward councillors jumping out of the ship. You see, if Sheval Arendse runs as independent and LOSES to the DA, that seat on the Mayco may remain unclaimed. And then another ID ward councillor might be tempted to try the same trick.

Unsavory business, politics…

It’s confirmed, Sheval Arendse WILL run as the DA candidate in the Tafelsig by election. Obviously this is a political deal, but I can’t see what was in it for Arendse other than being part of the government and not just in opposition….unless…they offered him the Mayco seat?!

If they didn’t offer him they Mayco seat, and he’s doing it just to be in government, then the same logic could apply to the ID councillor from the adjacent ward who beat the DA’s Maria Botes (if I’m not mistaken).

That’s good news Geordin. Sheval Arendse stands more of a chance as a DA candidate than as an independent since had he decided to run as an independent then he would have effectively split the opposition vote and increased the chance that either the ID or ANC could get back in. But now that he has decided to back the DA, the DA is virtually certain of taking this ward by a wide margin over the ANC and ID.

I agree…the DA will in all likelihood take the ward by a sizeable margin. What will be interesting is what happens to Arendse after the election. As you argued before, Kevin, he probably would have stood a better chance of getting the MAyco seat as an independent. If he wins as a DA candidate and DOESN’T get the seat, I suppose it’s a tactical error on his part.

Still, he is nothing more than a semi legitimate floorcrosser and I must say I am somewhat dissapointed in the DA for doing this deal. I suppose we must look at the bigger picture and see that his seat may keep the DA in government- I know that, but it still sits uneasily with me.

Not uneasy with me as the ID had sold out it’s constituents when it voted with the ANC for Nomaindia Mfeketo as mayor and voted with the ANC against sacking city manager Wallace Mgoqi. This is a lesson for Patricia de Lille to listen to the people that voted for her party. If the ID doesn’t change tact then I would have no sympathy if their other two ward councillors decide to take recourse and resign their positions and follow what Arendse is doing. The bigger picture is that it would be in the interests of stability in the Cape Unicity if the DA-led coalition were to have a two or three seat majority. The onus is on the ID to stop playing their games and to cooperate as an opposition party whose voters were just as unhappy with the previous ANC administration as the DA’s were.

Yip, you’re right…It really has been funny to see the ID backtrack over the last week or so. Now Grindrod says the ID will never support a vote that puts the ANC back in power. The impression I get is that this is some serious damage control.

Also, check out the ID’s webpage (id.org.za)- notice how the only news items concern Cape Town, as if the ID was never a national political party and isn’t particularly bothered with national issues.

Geordin,

Would you by chance know if whether the ANC and ID will each be contesting the Tafelsig ward by-election or if they have nominated a joint candidate to take on the DA?

If so do you know if the smaller parties in Helen Zille’s DA-led coalition government such as the ACDP, UDM and the AMP, if they are also contesting the ward?